Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the subsequent few months, however it raises extra questions than it solutions.
Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software program releases
September 2024
- v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between crucial interventions
- v12.5.2 on AI3 pc (unified fashions for AI3 and AI4)
- Truly Good Summon
- Cybertruck Autopark
- Eye-tracking with sun shades
- Finish-to-Finish community on freeway
- Cybertruck FSD
October 2024
- Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
- v13 with ~6x improved miles between crucial interventions
Q1 2025
- FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
- FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)
Electrek’s Take
The principle drawback is enchancment in opposition to what? Tesla has at all times refused to launch FSD intervention knowledge so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can obtain a “3x enchancment in miles between crucial intervention.”
As we beforehand reported, we do have some crowdsourced knowledge, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we would as nicely use that since Tesla refuses to launch official knowledge.
For v12.4, the CEO stated that it’ll come with out steering wheel nag and it will likely be capable of drive “5 to 10x extra miles per intervention“.
v12.4 by no means made it to a large launch and v12.5 was alleged to go huge launch final month and it solely made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the final time I checked.
Now, as a substitute of a 5 to 10x enhance on v12.4, which was a flop, he’s now speaking a few “~3x enchancment” this month with the discharge of v12.5.
Let’s evaluate the info thus far. Primarily based on the crowdsourced knowledge, the common of the v12.5.1 variations is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between crucial disengagement.
This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between crucial disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the final FSD model that went into a large launch earlier this 12 months:
Take into account that to attain Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it might probably must be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between crucial disengagement, aka 390x over the present knowledge.
Primarily based on Elon’s new timeline and in comparison with this knowledge, we needs to be at round ~400 miles between “crucial interventions ” by the tip of the month.
The time period “crucial interventions” can be problematic and raises questions.
The crowdsourced knowledge can be attempting to differentiate “crucial” disengagements and it is smart since many disengagements don’t have anything to do with the extent of security in FSD. Some disengagement are on account of consolation and frustration on the driving force’s half.
With v12.5.1, numerous the disengagement must do with navigation errors and pace. The previous, Tesla will definitely want to repair. The latter is extra problematic because it truly affect the info.
Many FSD drivers complain that the most recent replace is drives extraordinarily gradual. This could assist with the efficiency and cut back crucial disengagement, however it is not going to assist general disengagement as many drivers simply develop annoyed, myself included, and take management of the automobile to begin driving at extra cheap speeds.
So sure, as per my headline, this roadmap brings extra questions than it solutions primarily on account of the truth that Tesla refuses to launch intervention knowledge and but, it makes use of will increase within the metric to trace progress.
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