Tesla is declaring victory on attaining its September milestones for its autonomy roadmap, however we see an important milestone lacking.
Earlier this month, Tesla launched an AI product/self-driving roadmap that included milestones the crew aimed to perform within the coming months.
With September coming to an in depth and Tesla beginning the rollout of Supervised FSD for Cybertruck, Elon Musk sycophants are already celebrating Tesla undertaking all of the milestones:
Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s head of autonomous software program, and Musk himself commented on the publish in approval.
Nonetheless, as Elluswamy factors out, there’s already a small caveat that just some Cybertrucks are at present getting FSD, nearly a 12 months after the primary deliveries, and the “end-to-end on freeway”, which is the usage of neural nets all through the entire freeway driving course of, is barely being shipped on Cybetrucks proper now.
Due to this fact, the overwhelming majority of Tesla autos with FSD gained’t get it in September as deliberate.
With that stated, there’s a a lot larger drawback with claiming victory on the September milestone than end-to-end on highways: interventions.
Arguably, the most important declare in Tesla’s autonomy milestones in September is FSD v12.5.2 attaining a “~3x enchancment miles between needed interventions.”
As we reported when Tesla first launched this roadmap, this can be a problematic purpose within the first place as Tesla has by no means launched any official miles between interventions knowledge, which brings the query: 3x from what?
With out official knowledge from Tesla, we now have to depend on crowdsourced knowledge, which Musk himself has beforehand positively remarked on.
We at present have simply over 2,500 miles of FSD v12.5.2 crowdsourced knowledge and it exhibits 35 miles between essential disengagement and 17 miles between disengagement:
Now once more, Tesla by no means specified a 3x enchancment from what?
If we go from a median of all of the 12.5.1 variations, it exhibits that v12.5.2 is definitely a. regression as a result of over greater than 14,000 miles these variations have averaged 174 miles between essential disengagements:
Simply in case, we are able to additionally examine it with FSD v11, however that additionally expose v12.5.2 as a regression:
The one clear optimistic factor about FSD’s enchancment that we are able to collect from this knowledge is that Tesla went from a median essential disengagement each 109 miles with FSD v11 to 1 each 166 miles on common with all v12 variations mixed.
However even that’s a 50% enchancment – each “~150%” enchancment that Tesla talked about, which once more was for v12.5.2 in opposition to who is aware of?
Electrek’s Take
This shifting of the goalpost and fixed reward from sycophants is sending the improper message to Tesla.
I’m not a hater. I can admit that Tesla has made some enhancements in September. I definitely wouldn’t name transport FSD on Cybertruck a win after nearly a 12 months following the primary deliveries, however the brand new driver monitoring system on FSD v12.5.2 is an enormous enchancment in addition to auto-speed controls.
It makes the system extra snug and helpful. It feels much less like a job of coaching Tesla’s self-driving system.
Nonetheless, it doesn’t change the chilly undeniable fact that Tesla is nowhere close to the place it must be by way of miles between disengagement with a purpose to see a path towards a real unsupervised self-driving system, which is what Tesla has been promising for years.
Tesla wants a 1,000x enchancment in miles between essential disengagement, and the truth that it’s at present celebrating a nonexistent “~3x” improve must be worrying to folks.
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